USDA put out their Prospective Plantings report on Monday. The acreage estimates were based primarily on farmer surveys conducted the first two weeks of March. The data shows USDA is estimating 2025 corn acres at 95.326 million acres, almost a million acres above the average trade guess. Soybean acres are estimated at 83.495, just below the average trade guess.
“The numbers were, as expected, a little bearish for corn, and the initial reaction took the May contract down to $4.44,” says market analyst John Zanker from Risk Management Commodities. Zanker is a regular contributor to Hoosier Ag Today market programs.
He says this is one of the tamest Prospective Planting report days for the markets he’s ever seen. It helped that corn came well off its low, with nearby contracts actually finishing higher.
“In this business, and I’ve been doing this going on 44 years, you just never know quite what the USDA is going to say, and then you’re not really sure how the trade’s going to react to those numbers.”
Much more volatility was expected. Zanker believes we might see some course correction on Tuesday.
“I think they overdid the downside with beans. That was not a bearish report for soybeans, and there’s maybe some favorable biodiesel talk now coming from the Agriculture Secretary. So, I’d be a little bit surprised if we don’t try to bounce the bean market today.”
You can see where corn, soybeans, and other ag markets finished the day on Monday in the graphic below.
